A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
