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It was two months ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.